UNLV Can’t Wait for 2032. The Big 12 Is the Real Endgame.

When UNLV hired Dan Mullen, it didn’t just mark a new chapter for Rebel football — it signaled the return of something bigger: ambition.

This wasn’t a retread hire. Mullen is a proven SEC coach with 103 career wins, three New Year’s Six bowls, and a résumé that includes Florida, Mississippi State, and a trip to the SEC title game. His arrival gave UNLV credibility. It also reignited a conversation that’s been slowly building: Is UNLV ready to make a Power move?

And not just any move — the right one.

Because if we’re being honest, the Pac-12 isn’t the finish line. It’s barely a launching pad. The real goal — the one that fits the city, the brand, and the future of college sports — is the Big 12.

And the time to chase it is now.

The Mountain West Deal That Trapped UNLV

Let’s rewind. When the Pac-12 imploded and five Mountain West schools (Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, Colorado State, and Utah State) jumped ship, the league scrambled to avoid collapse. UNLV and Air Force stepped in to stabilize things. In exchange, they received a larger cut of the poaching and exit fees, keeping the MWC basketball tournaments and conference headquarters in Las Vegas.

Sounds reasonable, until you read the fine print.

UNLV signed a Grant of Rights that surrendered its media revenue through 2032. It forfeited its exit leverage, even if a better league came calling. And it locked itself into a contract that even now — with the Pac-12 re-engaging — makes movement legally murky. All because the university’s president, Keith Whitfield, serving as Chair of the Mountain West Board, approved the very structure that boxed UNLV in.

The deal was designed to keep the league afloat.

It may have done that. But it also tied down the program best positioned to leave.

What Makes UNLV a True Power 4 Candidate?

Let’s be clear: this conversation wouldn’t exist if UNLV hadn’t put the pieces together.

The football team has gone 20–8 over the past two years, reaching back-to-back Mountain West Championship games. The basketball program is undergoing a portal-fueled reload. Facilities are elite — the Fertitta Football Complex rivals anything in the Big 12, and Allegiant Stadium is a national showcase. The Thomas & Mack Center and Mendenhall Center are worthy Power-level basketball homes. UNLV is a Tier 1 research university with a law school, a medical school, and a footprint that goes far beyond campus.

And most importantly? It’s in Las Vegas.

A market that doesn’t just host the Super Bowl, Final Four, and CFP — it owns the calendar. A city that networks want, sponsors crave, and recruiting thrives in. No other Group of Five program — not Memphis, not Tulane, not Texas State — can offer this blend of infrastructure, exposure, and upward trajectory.

The Pac-12 Isn’t Power. It’s Packaging.

There’s a temptation to view the reformed Pac-12 as a step up from the Mountain West. But let’s not kid ourselves.

The new Pac-12 is a Group of Five league in every way but branding. It’s a stitched-together coalition of former Mountain West programs and two isolated leftovers. It might carry a bit more perception. But power? Not anymore. The media rights are weaker. The CFP access is in question. And the long-term vision is muddled.

Yes, the Pac-12 still wants UNLV. But it needs UNLV.

Because it’s one school short of meeting the NCAA’s requirement for a football conference. And right now, UNLV is the only viable brand left that checks every box.

But just because the Pac-12 is an option doesn’t mean it’s the goal.

The Big 12 Is the Move That Makes Sense

This is where the story shifts.

The Big 12 already planted its flag in Las Vegas — its basketball championship is coming to T-Mobile Arena in 2027. Commissioner Brett Yormark has said publicly he wants to “plant a western flag.” And behind the scenes, the whispers are getting louder. UNLV has emerged as a real option.

It fits. The Big 12 wants market growth, major venues, and time zone coverage. UNLV offers all three.

Erick Harper, UNLV’s athletic director, has deep Big 12 roots. He played at Kansas State when it was still the Big Eight and served as an assistant AD there during its last expansion cycle. He knows the terrain — and more importantly, he understands what it takes to sell Las Vegas to the Big 12 brass.

And sell it they should.

Because for all the progress the Pac-12 is trying to make, the Big 12 is still the Power Four league. It’s got the playoff seat. The TV deal. The financial backing. The exposure. It’s not perfect — but it’s the conference UNLV should be building toward.

The Legal Wildcard: Mediation and Momentum

Here’s the twist.

The Mountain West and Pac-12 are now locked in court-ordered mediation over nearly $145 million in exit fees and poaching penalties. If the Mountain West wins, the Grant of Rights likely survives.

But if there’s a settlement — or if the mediation weakens the deal’s legal footing — it could open the door for UNLV to exit early. Maybe not cleanly. Maybe not cheaply. But open nonetheless.

And if that happens, UNLV needs to be ready. Because that crack won’t stay open forever.

Final Thought: Don’t Just Escape — Elevate

UNLV has already done the hard part. They’ve built something. They’ve won. They’ve invested. They’ve positioned themselves.

Now it’s about picking the right path.

The Pac-12 might feel like the safer option. But safety is what boxed UNLV in to begin with. The Big 12 offers something more — not just better money and exposure, but validation. A seat at the grown-up table. A path into the future.

This isn’t about clinging to survival.

It’s about chasing power.

And if Vegas taught us anything, it’s that when the stakes are high, you don’t wait for the perfect hand.

You bet on yourself.